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Short Trade in the Euro


The Euro is moving wildly on August 26 while Janet Yellen speaks, yet the overall outlook hasn't changed despite the intraday volatility. The big swings are also giving traders a second chance to get short. There are two main reasons to consider a short trade here.

The continuous chart shows that the price has fallen off a huge resistance area (upper grey box), and has been declining within a smaller trend channel since. With major resistance halting and reversing the advance, this is a long-term ranging market, likely to drift back to major support (lower grey box).  That gives Euro futures (6E) a downward bias over the next few months.

Shorter-term, the trade to focus on is the smaller descending trend channel the currency is currently moving in. 

The December contract shows the price is near the upper trendline of the channel. Given that the channel is descending and the longer-term bias is down (moving toward the bottom of an even longer-term range), this is a prime time to consider a short trade. While the price has slightly edged above the trendline, the trend is still down, with August 18 swing high remaining below the June swing high.

Consider a short trade between 1.1386 and 1.1350. Place a stop loss slightly above the August 18 swing high of 1.14215. The downside target is near the bottom of the channel, in the 1.105 region. This target is actually above the bottom of the channel, and above the June low of 1.09935. A more aggressive target could be placed below 1.09935, based on the downtrend (prices make lower lows). The trade provides a 4:1 reward-to-risk or greater.

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