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Japanese Yen Setting Up For a Trend Trade Entry


The June Japanese yen futures contract spiked to a high of 0.009483 on May 3 after a surprise Bank of Japan announcement in late April. Since the high the price has been pulling back, but the yen futures remain in an uptrend. The pullback presents an opportunity to get long, as the uptrend could continue to run into the 0.0098 region.

In mid-May the price consolidated around 0.0092. Then it dripped slightly again, and has been consolidating around 0.0091. The small drop out of the 0.0092 consolidation shows there isn't a lot of selling pressure at the moment, which bodes well for the longs and a continuation of the uptrend.

Here are two entry and stop loss tactics. With the price currently consolidating between 0.0090465 and 0.00917, consider an entry near the bottom of the consolidation, with a stop loss below the bottom of the consolidation. This provides a very high reward to risk trade, but there is a higher chance the trade could be stopped out by a minor downward fluctuation.

Another entry is to wait for the price to move above 0.00917 before going long. A stop loss goes below 0.0090465, meaning the risk is a bit bigger, but there is slightly more confirmation that the pullback is over and the price is starting to move higher again.

Figure 1. June Japanese Yen Futures, Daily Chart

The longer-term target for this wave of the uptrend is 0.0098, although that could take some time to develop. Consider short-term targets near the recent high of 0.009483, and at 0.00955.

Consumer Price Index data out of Japan on Thursday could be the catalyst that shakes the yen out of this consolidation.

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