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Mexican Peso Continues to Produce on the Short Trades

Over the last two years the Mexican Peso (6M) has been one of the most reliable short trades among currency futures. "Reliable" means a steady stream of trade signals that have worked out well, with the price moving to the downside before seeing another pullback to the upside.

Since the start of 2015 the price has been declining along a descending trendline, with the price hitting it and then heading lower. In June/July the price pulled back to the trendline again, and once again it's starting to move lower off of it.

0.05470 is the resistance area, and the price has been testing that area for about a month. Spending this much time near the trendline before dropping is quite common, and the peso has done this several times over the last two years.

Figure 1. Mexican Peso Futures, Continuous Daily Chart

On the September contract, look to entry short between 0.0533 and 0.0539. A stop loss is placed above 0.05456 (July 14 intraday high). Place a profit target at 0.0500. Which is the bottom of a trend channel (channel is drawn based on most common movement, not extremes). The trade provides a favorable reward to risk (better with a higher entry) in a currency that has provided consistently profitable short trades over the last couple years.

There are no assurances this short trade will work out though. A rally above the June 24 swing high of 0.05484 could signal the price is breaking higher on the September contract.

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