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Swiss Franc Futures Trading at Pivotal Price Area

An SNB policy change in January spiked June Swiss Franc futures (6S), but just days later the futures were falling once again. On March 11 the Swiss Franc reached the price area it was at just before the major event.  Price areas that are the focal point of major trend reversals are often significant when tested again.

The price area the Swiss Franc was trading in just prior to the surge was 0.9917 to 0.9818. The area has already been tested once, on March 11, and resulted in a small pop higher--that could be random though.  If the area holds, a larger rally is expected.

Figure 1. June Swiss France Futures (6S) - 4 Hour Chart

swiss franc-1.jpg (1)

For bulls the trade is to buy within or near the support area, with a stop loss below the support area. Look to make a profit of at least three times risk--preferably more--which gives a price target near 1.0120 or slightly above.  A target up to 1.02 is acceptable, but given the downtrend a higher target is less likely to get hit.

Bears can wait to see if the level holds. A bounce up to the 1.02--followed by a consolidation and then a breakout lower--is a shorting opportunity.  If the support area doesn't hold, it isn't an immediate short signal. The trend is down, so waiting for a pullback to the descending trendline is more likely to provide a favorable reward-to-risk trade than selling at fresh lows. 

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