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Natural Gas Near Historic Lows - Buying Opportunity?


The April contract of natural gas (NG) is trading near 1.76 on March 10, up from a recent low of 1.611. That 1.611 mark is one of the lowest prices seen in the last 20 years.

1.63 (and above) has been the long term support area the price has generally bounced off of, so while the recent drop moved below that, the price has rallied aggressively since reaching that region. That indicates there is still support below 1.63.

If the price has bottomed, and a rise is beginning, there's a historic precedent that the price is likely to rally to at least 2.6, and potentially even 3.8 or higher. All rallies off prior lows have at least reached 2.5, and ultimately 3.8 or higher. These levels, and support, are marked with horizontal lines on Figure 1.

Figure 1. Natural Gas 20 Year Weekly Chart

This sets up up huge reward-to-risk trade with a stop loss not far below the recent low and targets at 2.5 or above.

This is a longer-term trade and outlook, therefore, an alternative is to trade an ETF. The United States Natural Gas Fund (UNG) is one possibility. If trading the ETF, exit when the nearest natural gas contract reaches your target, as opposed to setting a target price in UNG.

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