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Historic Buying Opportunity in Corn


A decade of corn prices show that corn futures are trading near major long-term support, following a decline over the last month.  While picking an exact bottom is difficult in any market, it is likely that a bottom in corn is close.

The long-term support band is between 300 and 335, an area already tested in late 2015. Since that initial test of support the price has been moving sideways, jumping higher but then dropping back toward support. A similar bottoming structure occurred in late 2008 to mid-2010...about 20 months. The current bottoming process (likely, but not assured) has been in play for 23 months.

This range is likely in its final month or two, and could be within weeks and even days of putting in a final low before beginning a major rallying which would take the price back above 725, based on historical precedent.

Figure 1. 10 Year Corn Futures, Weekly Continuous Chart

The December contract shows one potential trade setting up now. Following a drop to 333.25 in July, the price is consolidating below 346. A rally above 346 could see the price start to rally, offering a low risk opportunity (relative to reward potential) with a stop loss below 333.25. This has been a choppy ranging market though, so getting in for a major upside move may require a couple entries and a couple small losses. This consolidation and potential entry occurs just above the long-term support band. If the trade is stopped out, it is likely that similar setups will occur within the support band.

Figure 2. December Corn Futures, Daily Chart

There is a risk that corn continues to fall, or doesn't have a major upside move.  If a rally does begin, taking partial profits near shorter-term resistance in the 410 region is encouraged, in case the range continues.

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