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Soybeans Correct, Watching for Buying Opportunity


Soybeans were on a staggering run from March till mid-June. After being in a downtrend since 2013, the November soybean futures contract rallied 36.6% from the March 2 intraday low of 868 to the 1186.25 June high. The strong rally indicates an uptrend is now underway, so a pullback could provide an entry into the next wave of the uptrend.

After hitting the June high the price pulled back, hitting 1021 briefly on July 8. Since the price has been so volatile it isn't advised to try to pick a pullback bottom while the price is falling. Rather wait for the price to stabilize for at least three sessions in the 1027 to 989 region. 1027 to 989 represents a 50% to 60% pullback of the March to June rally. This is an area where the selling often pauses, and then the price begins moving back to the upside.

Figure 1. November Soybeans, Daily Chart

If the price pulls back into that region, watch for three daily bars to move mostly sideways. Mark the high and low point of those three bars. Buy if the price moves above the 3-day high, with a stop loss below the recent low (likely the 3-day low). Exit part of the position near 1160. The remainder of the position can be held to the potential bigger move back above 1186.25. A longer-term target is 1300, but taking a profit a bit earlier at 1250 is advised.

Based on the entry method, the reward potential will likely be many times the risk.

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