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Wheat Bearish on Channel Break

December wheat (ZW) broke below a month long rising channel on November 6, indicating the downtrend is likely continuing.  This comes after wheat entered a sell area discussed back in mid-September. The short/ sell zone was between 540 and 525, as that's a region just below a range which is now likely to act as resistance (and has so far).

Figure 1. December Wheat (ZW) Daily Chart


The most immediate target is 500, based on the width of the channel, subtracted from the channel breakout price. The next target is 480 to 470, which is near the September low. Despite the downtrend, these are modest targets based on Wheat's seasonal tendency. Mid-November typically sees a rise into the start of December, at which point wheat often declines again.

Overall though, this market remains in a downtrend until proven otherwise.

If the downtrend continues, the next Fibonacci extension targets are at 440 and 400.

On the other hand, a rally back above the recent high at 545.5 indicates wheat is tracking the seasonal tendency and likely to rise toward 580. 


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