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Nikkei 225 Completes Bullish Pennant Formation

Nikkei 225 futures (NKD) saw a huge boost back on October 31 when the Bank of Japan announced increased stimulus. The Government Pension Investment Fund had also revealed it would move more capital into stocks, both local and foreign, and reduce its debt holdings.

After the initial surge the Nikkei consolidated in a bullish pennant formation, but broke out of if aggressively on November 11. November 13 is pushing toward a new 52-week high and the highest levels seen since 2007.

Figure 1. December Nikkei 225 Stock Average Index Futures (NKD) - Daily Chart


For a pennant formation the height of the rally (only the very aggressive part)--called the pole-- leading into the pennant is usually added to the bottom of the pennant providing a profit target. Based on that method the target is 18300 to 18350.

The danger in buying near the recent high (November 3) of 17480 is that unless the price definitely breaks that level it could continue to consolidate between 17480 and 16720. In either case the uptrend is likely to continue based on the buying strength.

A drop below 16720 is likely a false breakout (bear trap) but if legitimate warns of a decline back toward the 1600 region.


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