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Russell 2000 Completes Major Topping Pattern


While other index futures such as the S&P 500 (ES) and Nasdaq 100 (NQ) moved to the upside through much of 2014, the Russell 2000 (TF) couldn't gain quite as much traction.

A resistance zone between 1170 and 1205 batted the price down on four major pushes higher from January to September.

Figure 1. Russell 2000 Futures (TF) Daily Chart

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This price action created a double top based on the March and July highs (near 1200). There's also a complex head and shoulders pattern (two heads) which has taken place over all of 2014. Both of the patterns were broken in October as the price declined below 1070/1065.

Based on this, the trend is now considered down in the Russell 2000, and rallies present selling/shorting opportunities. Such an opportunity occurs if the price pulls up toward the downward sloping trendline, currently offering resistance near 1140.

If the price continues to fall below the 1038.6 low toward 1000 in the short-term, then look for 1065/1070 to provide potential resistance. Use this area to look for short positions on a pop higher.

Downside target, based on the height of the topping pattern (subtracted from breakout price), is 940.

 

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