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Gold Favorable for More Upside

The gold (GC) uptrend that began in December looks poised to continue. The price pulled back in the first half of March, consolidated and the broke that consolidation to the upside following the March 15 FOMC announcement.

Uptrends make higher swing highs and lows, so if the uptrend continues the price of gold is expected to move back above the January 27 swing high of 1268.10 (on the June contract). A profit target could be placed near 1280 or slightly above, with a stop loss below 1198.

Figure 1. June 2017 Gold Futures, Daily Chart

With the price having already run up to the 1230 region (as of mid-day March 16) that risk/reward isn't ideal. Although, there is potential for the price to move higher over the longer-term, as it is arguable the longer-term uptrend which began in 2016 is still in play. If that is case, the price could eventually move back above the July high of 1391.5 (on June contract). A move of that size could take several months or longer, making it unlikely to occur by the June contract expiry.

The flip side is that a drop below 1198, and especially 1186, is bearish for gold. This short-term uptrend since December would be over, pointing toward declines into the 1140 region, or below. And if that happens, the possibility that this is a long-term uptrend (that began in 2016) is greatly diminished.


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