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Platinum Flashing Sell Signals


Since a high near 1744 in early 2013, Platinum futures have been in a downtrend.  With long periods of sideways movement and brief rallies the downtrend has more recently been highlighted by strong selling in late 2014, and again in early 2015.

After putting in a low at 1088.8, the July platinum futures contract (PL) has been consolidating in a large triangle pattern throughout April. That triangle is in danger of breaking (one drawings of it already has) as selling between May 5 and 7 has driven the price to support.

platinum futures triangle.jpg
Figure 1. July Platinum Futures (PL) - 4 Hour Chart

Given the long-term downtrend, a breach of support indicates the downtrend is continuing. Initial target is 1083, based on the height of the small triangle (solid lines) subtracted from the breakout price.

The price is also right near the approximate breakout point of the larger triangle pattern which goes back to the start of April. That one provides a target near 1060.

Both patterns are broken if the price goes below 1030. The May low is 1126.3; a drop below that level creates a lower swing low, another bearish signal.

With long and short-term momentum down, fortune favors the bears. That said, a rally back above resistance between 1155 and 1160 indicates at least short momentum may be shifting up.

When trading futures, use the correction position size for your account size to avoid too much risk.

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