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There Still Could be More Downside in Palladium


In late August the downtrend in palladium futures accelerated as the price dropped below (then) short-term support at 590, to a low of 519.20, on the December contract. Prior to the decline the price was in a range between 634.50 and 590.

Since August 28 the price has been testing the 590 breakout area, forming a consolidation between 605 and 568. With the trend down a break below the consolidation low at 568 is bearish and could indicate a new low, below is 519.2, is forthcoming.

A breakout above the consolidating resistance at 605 isn't necessarily bullish though. The most recent leg down in late August commenced the decline from 624. So pullbacks which stall out before reaching 624 are still shorting opportunities.

Figure 1. December Palladium Futures - Daily Chart

A rally above 624, and especially above 635, indicates buyers are stepping back in. That alone may not be enough to trigger a long trade though.  Long trades are better left until an actual uptrend develops. The uptrend is signaled by a break above resistance (624 to 635 area), followed by a pullback which creates a higher swing low. That would give more evidence a reversal is underway. For now though, the bias remains down on the daily chart.

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